Schedule Demo

Tag: Portfolio Management

  • Forecast Solar Production and Plant Value

    Forecast Solar Production and Plant Value

    Company

    A Large rural electric cooperative in the southeastern region of the United States.

    Challenge

    Develop stochastic simulation to accurately forecast solar production across diverse weather zones and integrate forecasted production into planning and budgeting.

    SATURN

    • Identified key solar metrics that provide accurate forecasts of solar energy production under varying weather conditions.  
    • Developed hourly energy prices corelated with hourly solar energy scenarios and corresponding hourly solar production.
    • Integrated solar production with generation production forecasting and identified impacts on system operations.     

    Impact

    • Delivered a stochastic forecasting process that integrates solar generation into planning and budgeting processes.  
    • Identified key solar energy metrics that enable most accurate stochastic forecasts of solar production.
    • Empowered the planning team to develop a process to evaluate power purchase agreements with solar developers.

    SATURN Applications

  • Forecast Wind Production and System Impacts

    Forecast Wind Production and System Impacts

    Company

    A large municipal utility in California.

    Challenge

    Develop stochastic forecasts of wind generation across diverse California weather patterns and analyze the impacts on system operations and production costs.

    SATURN

    • Identified key wind metrics that provide accurate forecasts of wind energy production under varying weather conditions.  
    • Modeled hourly energy prices aligned with wind speed scenarios and matching hourly wind production.
    • Integrated wind forecasts into system-wide generation planning and identified operational and cost impacts.   

    Impact

    • Developed a stochastic forecasting process that integrates wind generation into planning and budgeting processes.  
    • Identified key wind energy metrics that enable most accurate stochastic forecasts of solar production.
    • Empowered the planning team to develop a process to evaluate power purchase agreements with wind developers.

    SATURN Applications

  • Stochastic Production Costs for Large Cooperative

    Stochastic Production Costs for Large Cooperative

    Company

    Large rural electric cooperative in Georgia.

    Challenge

    Develop a comprehensive stochastic 20-Year Long Range Financial Forecast and detailed 4-Year budget for a diversified generation portfolio including nuclear, coal, gas, hydro, pumped hydro, and solar assets.

    SATURN

    • Implemented advanced stochastic simulation that provides reliable forecasts of future market prices.
    • Forecasted optimized generation operations, production costs, fuel requirements, and risk metrics.
    • Provided detailed reporting, extensive breakdowns, easy data visualization, and fast simulations.

    Impact

    • Enhanced cross-functional collaboration and elevated organizational modeling capabilities.
    • Reduced setup and reporting times, enabled fast simulations, and empowered in-depth analysis.
    • Streamlined automated workflows, enabled detailed reporting, and empowered confident decision-making.

    SATURN Applications

  • Improve Integrated Resource Planning

    Improve Integrated Resource Planning

    Company

    Large Investor-Owned Utility with multi-state operations.

    Challenge

    Replace legacy modeling system and develop advanced Integrated Resource Planning (IRP) including optimized production costing for a diversified generation portfolio.

    SATURN

    • Provided detailed modeling of diverse generation technologies including thermal, renewable, and storage.
    • Enabled fast simulation, advanced optimization, and streamlined data configuration and visualization.
    • Established seamless coordination between production costing and integrated resource planning teams.

    Impact

    • Achieved breakthrough simulation speeds – over 25 times faster than previous legacy system.
    • Enabled unprecedented multiple simulations within a few hours – with improved solutions and detailed modeling.
    • Reduced setup and reporting time and improved cross-departmental coordination and analytical depth.

    SATURN Applications

  • Optimize Operations and Maximize Margins

    Optimize Operations and Maximize Margins

    Company

    Independent Power Producer operating combustion turbine portfolio across Illinois markets.

    Challenge

    Optimize operational strategies to maximize portfolio margins while maintaining compliance with NOx and CO2 emission limits under the Climate and Equitable Jobs Act (CEJA) across rolling 12-month operational periods.

    SATURN

    • Empowered the commercial operations team with advanced margin optimization capabilities.
    • Delivered sophisticated risk solutions enabling optimized plant operations under market price volatility.
    • Implemented a Daily Morning Report for comprehensive market intelligence and predictive analytics.

    Impact

    • Increased operating margins by 15-20% while maintaining regulatory compliance.
    • Implemented a framework that enables CEJA compliance at minimum cost.
    • Enabled risk management and hedging for sustained competitive advantage.

    SATURN Applications

  • Optimize Hedging for Small IPP

    Optimize Hedging for Small IPP

    Company

    Small IPP managing high-risk assets in volatile MISO zone with dynamic pricing conditions.

    Challenge

    Develop optimal hedging alternatives with effective risk management under volatile market conditions, minimize downside exposure, protect operating margins, and balance risk-return optimization.

    SATURN

    • Simulated potential power and fuel prices and spark spreads using most recent forward curves – within minutes.
    • Developed optimized operations of power plants and forecasted operating margins and potential margin variability.
    • Provided breakdowns, long term trends, sensitivity analysis, and risk metrics that facilitated valuation with confidence.

    Impact

    • Enabled management to make an informed decision with confidence and achieve 15% hedging cost reduction.
    • Established reusable workflow and solution frameworks that enable rapid response to evolving hedging needs.
    • Implemented automated reporting and data visualization enabling real-time collaboration and results sharing.

    SATURN Applications

  • Stochastic Asset Valuation

    Stochastic Asset Valuation

    Company

    Texas Rural Electric Cooperative experiencing unprecedented high demand growth and expansion needs.

    Challenge

    Forecast optimized operations of potential new generation plants and quantify associated economic value across different thermal, renewable, and advanced storage technologies.

    SATURN

    • Simulated potential market prices using most recent forward curves – on demand within minutes.
    • Developed optimized operations of power plants and forecasted operating margins and potential margin variability.
    • Provided breakdowns, long term trends, sensitivity analysis, and risk metrics that facilitated valuation with confidence.

    Impact

    • Enabled management to execute informed decisions with analytical confidence and fast evaluation.
    • Established reusable workflow and solution frameworks that enable rapid response to asset valuation needs.
    • Implemented automated reporting and data visualization enabling real-time collaboration and results sharing.

    SATURN Applications

  • Implement Integrated Enterprise Risk Management

    Implement Integrated Enterprise Risk Management

    Company

    Large integrated energy company operating a diversified generation portfolio across PJM.

    Challenge

    Implement enterprise-wide risk management and seamlessly integrate a large fleet of generation units, hundreds of trades, multiple commodities, and retail loads.

    SATURN

    • Delivered cutting-edge stochastic simulation, rigorous generation modeling, and advanced trades valuation.
    • Integrated generation optimization, trading management, retail load analysis, and risk management.
    • Established integrated risk metrics and enabled enterprise risk management decisions with confidence.

    Impact

    • Replaced 3 legacy models and integrated forecasting across 4 departments into one platform.
    • Enabled unprecedented stochastic simulation with unmatched speed and analytical rigor.
    • Delivered key attribution metrics that facilitate effective hedging and risk management.

    SATURN Applications

  • Improve Portfolio Management Optimization

    Improve Portfolio Management Optimization

    Company

    Large Independent Power Producer (IPP) with generation assets in multiple ISOs.

    Challenge

    Forecast portfolio revenues, costs, margins, and risks while developing optimized hedging strategies for company generation fleets across each ISO and multiple regional markets.

    SATURN

    • Forecasted stochastic prices for several markets and several commodities across 4 ISOs.
    • Simulated optimized generation and forecasted revenues, costs, margins, and risk exposures.
    • Developed alternative efficient frontier hedging strategies and enabled effective risk management.

    Impact

    • Enabled unprecedented efficient frontier hedging that balanced risks and margin optimization.
    • Helped company management make risk management decisions with confidence.
    • Improved margins by over 10% and reduced risk exposure by over 15%.

    SATURN Applications

  • Develop Alternative Hedging Strategies

    Develop Alternative Hedging Strategies

    Company

    Large oil and gas state-owned company with integrated exploration, production, refining, transportation, and petrochemicals operations.

    Challenge

    Develop alternative hedging strategies to avoid extreme adverse outcomes and preserve required revenues and margins subject to company risk policy guidelines and restrictions.

    SATURN

    • Simulated stochastic market prices and estimated company potential revenues, margins, and risk exposures.
    • Identified and analyzed hedging strategies including futures, swaps, calls, puts, and synthetic options.
    • Delivered advanced simulation-based risk metrics to evaluate the impacts of each hedging alternative.

    Impact

    • Enabled the management team to compare hedging alternatives and make an informed decision with confidence.
    • Empowered company to identify minimum cost hedge that offered maximum risk reduction.
    • Enabled company to meet strict short and long-term risk policy requirements and develop repeatable methods.

    SATURN Applications