Schedule Demo

Tag: Market Analysis

  • Forecast Solar Production and Plant Value

    Forecast Solar Production and Plant Value

    Company

    A Large rural electric cooperative in the southeastern region of the United States.

    Challenge

    Develop stochastic simulation to accurately forecast solar production across diverse weather zones and integrate forecasted production into planning and budgeting.

    SATURN

    • Identified key solar metrics that provide accurate forecasts of solar energy production under varying weather conditions.  
    • Developed hourly energy prices corelated with hourly solar energy scenarios and corresponding hourly solar production.
    • Integrated solar production with generation production forecasting and identified impacts on system operations.     

    Impact

    • Delivered a stochastic forecasting process that integrates solar generation into planning and budgeting processes.  
    • Identified key solar energy metrics that enable most accurate stochastic forecasts of solar production.
    • Empowered the planning team to develop a process to evaluate power purchase agreements with solar developers.

    SATURN Applications

  • Forecast Wind Production and System Impacts

    Forecast Wind Production and System Impacts

    Company

    A large municipal utility in California.

    Challenge

    Develop stochastic forecasts of wind generation across diverse California weather patterns and analyze the impacts on system operations and production costs.

    SATURN

    • Identified key wind metrics that provide accurate forecasts of wind energy production under varying weather conditions.  
    • Modeled hourly energy prices aligned with wind speed scenarios and matching hourly wind production.
    • Integrated wind forecasts into system-wide generation planning and identified operational and cost impacts.   

    Impact

    • Developed a stochastic forecasting process that integrates wind generation into planning and budgeting processes.  
    • Identified key wind energy metrics that enable most accurate stochastic forecasts of solar production.
    • Empowered the planning team to develop a process to evaluate power purchase agreements with wind developers.

    SATURN Applications

  • Forecast Battery Energy Storage Value

    Forecast Battery Energy Storage Value

    Company

    National Independent Power Producer (IPP).

    Challenge

    Forecast operations and operating margins of Battery Energy Storage (BES) plants in ERCOT and estimate the impacts of various capacity expansion scenarios on BES value.

    SATURN

    • Simulated potential ERCOT market prices and the operations of various BES technologies.
    • Co-optimized generation, charging, and ancillary services of BES plants across multiple price scenarios.
    • Generated detailed revenue forecasts and conducted sensitivity analysis for various generation expansion plans. 

    Impact

    • Empowered IPP leadership to make data-driven investment decisions for BESS deployment across ERCOT.
    • Provided a detailed evaluation of different BES technologies and sensitivity to potential market changes.
    • Reconciled forecasted operations and valuations with back tests using actual recent market prices.

    SATURN Applications

  • Forecast Compressed Air Energy Storage Value

    Forecast Compressed Air Energy Storage Value

    Company

    Large generation company with diversified assets in MISO and PJM.

    Challenge

    Evaluate the commercial viability of developing a Compressed Air Energy Storage (CAES) plant in Norton, Ohio, and quantify the impact of generation mix changes in MISO and PJM.

    SATURN

    • Forecasted MISO and PJM market prices and the operations of a potential CAES plant at Norton.
    • Simulated co-optimized CAES generation, charging, and ancillary services under different price scenarios.
    • Created detailed revenue projections and sensitivity analysis across multiple MISO and PJM market scenarios.

    Impact

    • Enabled strategic comparison of CAES technology against conventional generation alternatives.
    • Developed repeatable stochastic valuation methodology to analyze potential generation alternatives.
    • Delivered advanced optimization framework and probabilistic market forecasts for executive decision-making.

    SATURN Applications

  • Stochastic Production Costs for Large Cooperative

    Stochastic Production Costs for Large Cooperative

    Company

    Large rural electric cooperative in Georgia.

    Challenge

    Develop a comprehensive stochastic 20-Year Long Range Financial Forecast and detailed 4-Year budget for a diversified generation portfolio including nuclear, coal, gas, hydro, pumped hydro, and solar assets.

    SATURN

    • Implemented advanced stochastic simulation that provides reliable forecasts of future market prices.
    • Forecasted optimized generation operations, production costs, fuel requirements, and risk metrics.
    • Provided detailed reporting, extensive breakdowns, easy data visualization, and fast simulations.

    Impact

    • Enhanced cross-functional collaboration and elevated organizational modeling capabilities.
    • Reduced setup and reporting times, enabled fast simulations, and empowered in-depth analysis.
    • Streamlined automated workflows, enabled detailed reporting, and empowered confident decision-making.

    SATURN Applications

  • Evaluate Power Plants for Acquisition

    Evaluate Power Plants for Acquisition

    Company

    Private Equity firm executing strategic power plant acquisitions across the US Midwest.

    Challenge

    Develop sophisticated stochastic forecasts of spark spreads and optimized simulations for 5 power plants across 4 Midwest states under diverse operational constraints.

    SATURN

    • Delivered stochastic framework to forecast market prices and spark spreads across the Midwest hubs.
    • Developed optimized operations of power plants and forecasted operating margins and potential margin variability.
    • Provided breakdowns, long term trends, sensitivity analysis, and risk metrics that facilitated valuation with confidence.

    Impact

    • Empowered acquisition team to execute winning bid with data-driven confidence and strategic advantage.
    • Delivered comprehensive asset valuation framework including probabilistic variability assessment.
    • Provided analytical foundation that guided business setup and operational optimization strategies.

    SATURN Applications

  • Optimize Operations and Maximize Margins

    Optimize Operations and Maximize Margins

    Company

    Independent Power Producer operating combustion turbine portfolio across Illinois markets.

    Challenge

    Optimize operational strategies to maximize portfolio margins while maintaining compliance with NOx and CO2 emission limits under the Climate and Equitable Jobs Act (CEJA) across rolling 12-month operational periods.

    SATURN

    • Empowered the commercial operations team with advanced margin optimization capabilities.
    • Delivered sophisticated risk solutions enabling optimized plant operations under market price volatility.
    • Implemented a Daily Morning Report for comprehensive market intelligence and predictive analytics.

    Impact

    • Increased operating margins by 15-20% while maintaining regulatory compliance.
    • Implemented a framework that enables CEJA compliance at minimum cost.
    • Enabled risk management and hedging for sustained competitive advantage.

    SATURN Applications

  • Optimize Hedging for Small IPP

    Optimize Hedging for Small IPP

    Company

    Small IPP managing high-risk assets in volatile MISO zone with dynamic pricing conditions.

    Challenge

    Develop optimal hedging alternatives with effective risk management under volatile market conditions, minimize downside exposure, protect operating margins, and balance risk-return optimization.

    SATURN

    • Simulated potential power and fuel prices and spark spreads using most recent forward curves – within minutes.
    • Developed optimized operations of power plants and forecasted operating margins and potential margin variability.
    • Provided breakdowns, long term trends, sensitivity analysis, and risk metrics that facilitated valuation with confidence.

    Impact

    • Enabled management to make an informed decision with confidence and achieve 15% hedging cost reduction.
    • Established reusable workflow and solution frameworks that enable rapid response to evolving hedging needs.
    • Implemented automated reporting and data visualization enabling real-time collaboration and results sharing.

    SATURN Applications

  • Stochastic Asset Valuation

    Stochastic Asset Valuation

    Company

    Texas Rural Electric Cooperative experiencing unprecedented high demand growth and expansion needs.

    Challenge

    Forecast optimized operations of potential new generation plants and quantify associated economic value across different thermal, renewable, and advanced storage technologies.

    SATURN

    • Simulated potential market prices using most recent forward curves – on demand within minutes.
    • Developed optimized operations of power plants and forecasted operating margins and potential margin variability.
    • Provided breakdowns, long term trends, sensitivity analysis, and risk metrics that facilitated valuation with confidence.

    Impact

    • Enabled management to execute informed decisions with analytical confidence and fast evaluation.
    • Established reusable workflow and solution frameworks that enable rapid response to asset valuation needs.
    • Implemented automated reporting and data visualization enabling real-time collaboration and results sharing.

    SATURN Applications

  • Implement Integrated Enterprise Risk Management

    Implement Integrated Enterprise Risk Management

    Company

    Large integrated energy company operating a diversified generation portfolio across PJM.

    Challenge

    Implement enterprise-wide risk management and seamlessly integrate a large fleet of generation units, hundreds of trades, multiple commodities, and retail loads.

    SATURN

    • Delivered cutting-edge stochastic simulation, rigorous generation modeling, and advanced trades valuation.
    • Integrated generation optimization, trading management, retail load analysis, and risk management.
    • Established integrated risk metrics and enabled enterprise risk management decisions with confidence.

    Impact

    • Replaced 3 legacy models and integrated forecasting across 4 departments into one platform.
    • Enabled unprecedented stochastic simulation with unmatched speed and analytical rigor.
    • Delivered key attribution metrics that facilitate effective hedging and risk management.

    SATURN Applications