Forecast Wind Production and System Impacts
Company
A large municipal utility in California.
Challenge
Develop stochastic forecasts of wind generation across diverse California weather patterns and analyze the impacts on system operations and production costs.
SATURN
- Identified key wind metrics that provide accurate forecasts of wind energy production under varying weather conditions.
- Modeled hourly energy prices aligned with wind speed scenarios and matching hourly wind production.
- Integrated wind forecasts into system-wide generation planning and identified operational and cost impacts.
Impact
- Developed a stochastic forecasting process that integrates wind generation into planning and budgeting processes.
- Identified key wind energy metrics that enable most accurate stochastic forecasts of solar production.
- Empowered the planning team to develop a process to evaluate power purchase agreements with wind developers.