Forecast Solar Production and Plant Value
Company
A Large rural electric cooperative in the southeastern region of the United States.
Challenge
Develop stochastic simulation to accurately forecast solar production across diverse weather zones and integrate forecasted production into planning and budgeting.
SATURN
- Identified key solar metrics that provide accurate forecasts of solar energy production under varying weather conditions.
- Developed hourly energy prices correlated with hourly solar energy scenarios and corresponding hourly solar production.
- Integrated solar production with generation production forecasting and identified impacts on system operations.
Impact
- Delivered a stochastic forecasting process that integrates solar generation into planning and budgeting processes.
- Identified key solar energy metrics that enable most accurate stochastic forecasts of solar production.
- Empowered the planning team to develop a process to evaluate power purchase agreements with solar developers.